Beyond the Grid: VC Predictions on What 2026 Will Demand From Power in Orbit
Featuring insights from Matt Kaplan, Managing Director at Shield Capital, and Dave Blivin, Founder and General Partner at Cottonwood VC
Welcome to “Beyond the Grid,” a Q&A series that explores the critical role of power in space. Through conversations with investors, operators, and technologists, we examine how energy infrastructure is shaping the next phase of the space economy.
In this installment, we spoke with Matt Kaplan of Shield Capital and Dave Blivin of Cottonwood VC, two investors tracking the intersection of capital markets, geopolitics, and space technology. Their perspectives highlight a shift underway. Power is no longer just a subsystem. It is becoming a defining constraint and opportunity across the entire orbital economy.
Market Signals Driving Demand for Space Power
From your vantage point, what global market signals, beyond the obvious growth in LEO constellations, suggest that demand for next generation space power systems will accelerate or shift in unexpected ways over the next 12 to 24 months?
Matt Kaplan: Growth in LEO constellations may accelerate even faster than expected. New direct to cell services, orbital compute, and larger spacecraft buses will require far more power than legacy suppliers can provide. At the same time, NATO allies are investing heavily in sovereign space capabilities, and concepts like Dynamic Space Operations are driving demand for more maneuverable, power intensive missions across all orbits.
Dave Blivin: SpaceX’s momentum and potential public market activity could trigger a wave of new capital into the sector, forcing competitors to innovate quickly and build out adjacent niches.
Supply Chains, Sovereignty, and Manufacturing Scale
As geopolitical dynamics reshape supply chains, how do you assess the strategic importance of domestic, automated, high volume space solar manufacturing for U.S. operators, allies, and global commercial players?
Matt Kaplan: High volume solar capacity is essential to initiatives like Tactically Responsive Space, which require flexible supply chains and the ability to deploy capability quickly. Because nearly every spacecraft depends on solar power, scalable manufacturing becomes a core strategic asset.
Dave Blivin: Countries increasingly want independent constellations and domestic supply chains. Strategic autonomy is becoming a major driver of investment decisions across the global space sector.
Space power is emerging as both a technical and geopolitical priority. The push toward domestic manufacturing and automated production is less about cost optimization and more about resilience and readiness. As governments prioritize sovereign capabilities, solar manufacturing infrastructure is becoming part of national security strategy, not just commercial supply chains. For startups and suppliers, this shift could redefine where production occurs and how partnerships form across allied markets.
Architectural Innovation and the Economics of Power
Many investors focus on materials innovation, but fewer discuss architectural shifts such as modular power surfaces, distributed spacecraft power networks, or power beaming infrastructure. What architectural changes do you believe will redefine the economics of power in space?
Matt Kaplan: Two major shifts are emerging. First, highly efficient solar capacity at scale is allowing constellation providers to generate more power without dramatically increasing array size, changing launch economics and satellite design. Second, longer term concepts like power beaming could fundamentally alter the assumption that every spacecraft must carry all its power infrastructure at launch.
Dave Blivin: Rapid iteration and full spacecraft reuse are already reshaping the economics of space systems. Faster replacement cycles and lower costs will drive innovation across power architectures as companies compete with vertically integrated players.
The industry may be approaching a transition from isolated spacecraft power systems to distributed energy infrastructure in orbit. Efficient solar technologies are already influencing launch density and satellite architecture, while emerging concepts like power beaming introduce the possibility of shared energy resources across constellations. Combined with reusable spacecraft and rapid iteration cycles, these architectural shifts could dramatically change how power is budgeted, deployed, and scaled in future missions.
The Next Wave of Space Markets Enabled by Power
If emerging solar technologies deliver lower cost, higher resilience, and scalable production, what second order markets or mission classes could emerge?
Matt Kaplan: Rather than unlocking entirely new mission areas, more accessible power will accelerate existing concepts whose business cases do not yet close. Affordable power is foundational infrastructure for scaling the broader space economy.
Dave Blivin: Concepts such as orbital data centers, lunar and Martian infrastructure, space based manufacturing, and asteroid mining all depend on reliable power. Even if discussed today, these markets cannot mature without stronger energy systems.
Investors see power not as a catalyst for speculative new ideas, but as the enabler that moves existing concepts from theory into operational reality. Lower cost, scalable solar capacity could accelerate timelines for markets already on the horizon, including in space computing, autonomous manufacturing, and deep space infrastructure. In this sense, power functions as the underlying platform upon which the next phase of commercialization will be built.
Insights from Matt Kaplan and Dave Blivin reinforce a growing consensus across the industry. Space power is shifting from a niche engineering concern to a strategic pillar of the orbital economy.
Geopolitical pressures, capital market dynamics, and evolving mission architectures are converging to drive unprecedented demand for scalable energy solutions in space. As satellites grow more capable and missions become more complex, the ability to generate, distribute, and manage power efficiently will define which companies and constellations can scale sustainably.